Investor Optimism Rises To 12-Week High

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Optimism about the short-term direction of the stock market rose to a 12-week high in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Neutral sentiment is slightly higher and bearish sentiment is modestly lower.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 2.0 percentage points to 35.6%. Optimism was last higher on July 31, 2019 (38.4%). Nonetheless, bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 38.0% for the 35th time this year and the 23rd time in 24 weeks.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 0.8 percentage points to 36.1%. Neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 31.5% for the 22nd time in 23 weeks.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, declined 2.8 percentage points to 28.3%. Pessimism is below its historical average of 30.5% for just the third time in 14 weeks.
At current levels, all three indicators are within their historical averages.
Many individual investors have been monitoring trade negotiations, particularly between the U.S. and China. Also having an influence on sentiment are Washington politics, geopolitics, valuations, corporate earnings, economic growth, monetary policy and interest rates.
In the theme of our 2019 AAII Investor Conference taking place in Orlando, Florida, this week’s special question asked AAII members what their favorite Disney movie is. When it comes to which Disney movie reigns supreme, there was hardly a consensus.
Approximately 27% of respondents name “Fantasia” as their favorite Disney film. Trailing close behind is the movie “Bambi” with 20% of respondents naming it as their favorite movie. Additionally, “Cinderella” (16%), “The Lion King” (18%) and “Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs” (19%) have respective followings of their own. Other honorable mentions include: “Beauty and the Beast,” “Lady and the Tramp,” “Mary Poppins” and “Dumbo.”

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